The Future of Flops

My son occasionally gets really excited about how the technology of the future is going to be so "dank".  I agree, it will.  Today, he was focusing on video cards, which then led him to look at supercomputing stats and expectations.  He kept repeating, "A billion billion calculations per second.  That's insane!"  And it is.  Insane.

As of now, many people involved in high performance computing believe that we will reach the exaflop level in 2020 (or there about).  We have some ways to go, given the current peak speed of only ~ 33 petaflops.  That said, there is a planned computer at Oak Ridge that could reach 300 petaflops.  From there, it's only a factor of three.  And desktop computers have been running only about 10 to 15 years behind the super computers (though that pace may not continue).  It all goes well, in my lifetime, we could end up with an exaflop's worth of power on our desktop.

There is a great Wikipedia article on Exascale Computing, which I won't attempt to improve on.  But noteworthy, is that it is believed that the current human brain is roughly a 1 exaflop computer.  So, it might not be crazy that a device that is sitting on your desk, could be as "smart" as you.  Scary, maybe, but exciting, too.  What will be better?  Here are my thoughts on how the future changes, from the obvious to the super speculative.

One Step Beyond

• Better video games:  Micro-textures?  Water physics modeling?  Good NPCs?
• Emersive Virtual Reality: like really emersive.  Imagine virtual worlds that have been built over years with powerful engineering and artistic tools.
• Even less human-provided customer service: Overseas call centers could be a thing of the past.  Voice recognition will be virtually perfect (instead of really good like it is now).  Small call-centers here to deal with the only most complex customer issues.
• Suggestive Prompts: Personal assistant software will go from mildly annoying to super helpful.  We'll get prompts to remind of us of meaningful things.  Amazon Echo on 'roids.  Stupid example: every time I head into my kitchen in the morning, I have my news briefing played.  But I have to ask for it.  Why shouldn't Alexa just start playing it a few days after I ask for it.  Or at least ask.  Fair enough that we don't need a exa-scale computer to do this, but I'm thinking that this kind of learning and intelligence will be ubiquitous.
• MORE TO COME!!

The Key to Keeping Cool?

It's hot today where I live.  I decided that it'd be a perfect day to test out some Qore Performance sleeves and shorts to see if I could still have a reasonably comfortable motorcycle ride in my ATGATT getup.  The TL;DR is yes, for a while.  Read on if you want to know more.  And in full disclosure, I'm friends with one of the guys who started the company, so I'm probably a little bit biased here.  Also note that the Qore system was not designed specifically for motorcyclists, I just thought that it could be useful.

First, let me describe what I did.  I suited up, road through Great Falls and Sterling Virginia and back in the afternoon of one of the hottest days this summer.  All in all, I was out about 90 minutes, excluding my stop at the grocery store on the way home.

Gear:

- Jacket: Mesh Joe Rocket.  Very free flowing when the liner is taken out, which it obviously was for a ride on a day like today.
- Pants: Inexpensive pair of Bilt riding pants with no venting (nor insulated).
- Gloves: Inexpensive mesh Bilt gloves
- Boots: Inexpensive Bilt boots (there is a pattern here - someday I will upgrade all of this Bilt gear).
- Helmet: Yes.
- Qore sleeves and shorts.  Here is what I looked like before putting on a t-shirt and my jacket and pants:

Pros of Qore:

• Absolutely cools you while you ride.  Noticeable coolness except on your head. 
• Well-made gear.

Cons of Qore:

• As I noted, the system was not designed for motorcycling in terms of the placement of the gel packs.  I think that this impacts the shorts mostly.  The cooling gel pockets should be moved to accommodate a seated position if it is to be sold to riders.
• Effectiveness Time: As noted above, I rode about 90 minutes.  After about 45, I could feel no measurable cooling.  The gel packs on my arms were still in place, but almost at body temp.  The gel packs on the shorts were still somewhat cool, but just barely.  My guess is that the mesh nature of my jacket causes a lot of heat transfer on the side of the gel packs not to my body, removing much of the coolness benefit that I could be receiving.

Conclusion:

Get something like the Entrosys A/C system if you want long term cooling on your motorcycle, but for shorter trips like commuting, the Qore system might be a good option for you.  I'm not going to let hot weather be an excuse for me to get out and ride, especially if its a crazy sunny day.  You can buy an additional set of gel packs and store in an insulated bag they provide to recharge partway through a longer ride.  Or, at a restaurant, ask for an extra glass of almost full ice water and recharge your gel packs that way.

One Step Beyond:

Here are some thoughts on improving the product:

• Directional gel pads: insulate one side and leave the other uninsulated.  The side facing the user would be uninsulated.  This maximizes heat transfer between the intended side while minimizing it to the other.  By varying the amount of insulation on the side facing the user, you could tune how long the gel packs would likely be effective for.  Do you want a lot of cooling or just a little?
• One time endothermic reaction gel pads: opposite of heating pads.  Ideally, these would last 4 hours or so.
• Electrify the system: introduce solid-state thermoelectric plates/pads that pug in to the bikes 12V system.  In the summer, put the cool side toward the user.  In the winter, do the opposite (though resistive heating would probably be more efficient).  Imagine an ADV ride up a high mountain - cooling in the morning, heating in the afternoon!