Friday, March 14, 2014

Shingle Me Timbers

So the future is not quite now, but I think that this is a big step.  Dow Chemical is jumping into the renewable energy fray with a solar shingle, named PowerHouse.  Its a great idea.  Not cheap, but a great start.  Their marketing wisely doesn't focus on people who would install from scratch, but on those that would be replacing their shingles anyway.

Unfortunately, I live in Virginia and would not qualify for incentives, so I chose the next best place, Washington DC.  The website estimates that I could save a substantial amount of money in electricity costs (over 25 years) and raise the value of my house (presumably due to the decreased energy requirements).  Though my house is not this large, here is the view that they provide:

Unfortunately, what I took for links in the paragraph are not links.  Of course, I could talk to an expert, but I have the following complaints about the provided information:

  • How is the asphalt roof of -$20k value?  Misleading comparison - costs only on the left, benefits only shown on the right.
  • I'd like to dig into their assumptions and know what the pre-incentive cost is rather than just the post-incentive.
  • How do they conclude my house value goes up by this amount?
  • What is the $120k of energy savings based on?  What is their forecast of residential power prices?  Do they factor in DC RECs?
Perhaps the information is not shown because they are making some heroic assumptions that embarrass them.  That said, by not putting supporting information, that is pretty much the only conclusion a skeptical guy like myself can come to.

Before you dismiss this post as just a solar hater, please factor in the following about my views:
  • I'm a fan of solar and innovative ways to create electricity.  If I could buy a solar stirling engine (claimed to be 1/2 the cost of PV) and put it into my front yard, I would.
  • I have also investigated installing a series of nine roof-mounted wind turbines on my roof.  A relatively modest investment of $15k could largely offset my grid usage.  I'm very concerned about noise under high wind conditions.
  • If organic flow batteries ever take off, the first two options will look much more interesting to me.
  • However, I am a true believer in price.  We are wasting our money on subsidies.  See Marginal Revolution for a recent summary of different economists take on climate change.  My views are squarely with Bjorn Lomborg.  Stop the subsidies, ramp up the R&D.  We will soon have products that are cheaper than fossil fuels and will adopt them without market distortions.

No comments: