Thoughts on "A World Without Work"

I found A World Without Work, recently published in the Atlantic, to be a fascinating read.  I think the author does a good job discussing a meaningful trend (lower labor force participation rates for "prime age" people) and discusses how one of the major drivers for that change (technology) might continue to affect us as a society.

I, for one, welcome the idea that people could be freed from the shackles of being forced to work.  (That said, I suspect that some portion of us are already freed from those shackles without taking advantage of it.  Instead, we spend our extra money instead of saving it for down-times.)  I think that technology has great promise in freeing us from even more of where we spend our time today.  That said, I cannot foresee a world where there is truly no work.  More likely, we end up in a bi-modal world where many people do not work (or work only sporadically) and high earners keep working hard and enjoy the benefits of their labor.  At the very least, we need people to design and repair our machines that do the work for us.

In some ways, the world could be bimodal, as well.  Just like advancements in average levels of education haven't helped most of the developing world (nearly as much as history suggested that it would), could there be an outcome where developed country standards of living shoot way ahead of less developed, despite there being little work involved?  If so, how does immigration work in that environment? (i.e., there should be a crush of people wanting in to the work-free countries).

Here are some random thoughts on where we could benefit from machines:

• Clothes folder: I'm ok with managing loads going into and out of my washer and dryer, but where is the folder?  Dump in a pile of clothes, the machine recognizes what each article is and sorts and folds automatically.  I don't even care if it puts it away; I can manage that.  If this comes to past, why not a closer linkage between machines where you put dirty clothes in one end and out on the other end pops clean, dry, folded clothes.  Maybe these never get built for houses, but on an industrial scale with a laundry service, this would have to work, no?  Coupled with drone delivery, it'd be genius.
• Stove-based Auto-Cooker: These are coming!  Looking forward to a practical version.  I'd expect to see a commercial application of this first.  [Aside: I think it'd be a great restaurant concept to have these guys in the center making your meal (think 8 in an octagon in the center facing outward with customer tables arranged surrounding it).  When the robot was making your meal, your table's color would flash for a bit, alerting you to pay attention.  Gimmicky for sure, but could be a lot of fun (at least until the novelty wore off).  This might even work better with no servers - you get alerted when your meal has started and when it's done and you go pick it up.  MTO and fine dining quality with self-service and no tips.  A winning concept?]  And if we live in a world where robots cook our food, I'd imagine they can clean our dishes, too.
• House builder: This would actually need to be a series of specialized machines, so I'm guessing we'll tackle this issue from a number of different dimensions, spelled out below.  I don't see major systems (like the furnace, air conditioner and hot water heater) being automatically installed.  Perhaps 3-D house printing is the future, but for stick-built homes like dominate in the US, here's what we'd need.
• Bricklayer: Driveway.  Walls / other.
• Stick-built factory assembly: Robotic assembly of pre-built sections.  This may already be a thing.
• Stick-built assembler: I haven't seen one yet, but imagine a machine that can put all of the pre-fab sections together with no instructions.  It was all designed on a computer in the first place (at least this is probably the overwhelming majority of normal houses).  It would also need to be large enough to put on the roof.  Likely a "placer" and an "affixer" to nail or otherwise fasten it in place.
• Shingler: lays felt and asphalt shingles autonomously.
• Utility holer: drills all holes for plumbing and electrical wiring.  Not only does it drill varied sized holes depending on the function, it sprays the hole with a code (i.e., blue for electrical, green for plumbing, yellow for ethernet, red for audio).  Much of this could/should actually be done in the factory.
• Utility runner: actually runs wires & pipes through all of the holes that the driller made.  Probably much harder than the Utility holer to pull off.
• Tile/Wood Flooring module: Lays down, cuts, etc. a tile or wood floor.
• Insulation: Installs perfect amount of expanding insulation in walls.  Also applies vapor barriers.
• Drywall Installer: Lift position and screws in drywall.  Both walls and ceilings.  Precut all necessary holes.
• Drywall Mudder: Seals drywall seems.  Some crude devices already exist here.
• Window/Door setter: Specialized gear to perfectly install windows and doors
• Painter: runs around the house 
• Siding installers: moves around the house to perfectly set up vinyl siding.
• Small Landscaper: Autonomous mini-bulldozer that will push dirt around to the desired final outcome with no human intervention.  Built-in avoidance of people and other robots.
• Autonomous cars & trucks: Well covered elsewhere.  They can't come soon enough.
• Autonomous ships: They are on their way, too.
• Autonomous/remote mining: Get the miners out of the shafts.  Can't come soon enough, as well.
• Autonomous Landscaping & Farming: We have mainstream mowers, how about bush management?  Believe me, I would only have plants on my property that could be managed by these devices.  Also, a great opportunity to mix in other technologies.  Bushes need trimming at most a couple of times a season.  Just rent the services of this complex machine: have an autonomous vehicle deliver it to the property and have it manage the bushes and return home.  Also, autonomous fertilization and weeders.  Really, roomba needs to make a "gardenba" to weed my small herb garden.  Weather-proof and solar charged would be a nice touch (just leave it in the garden and it does the work).  Likely, weeds will have no way of adapting to physical disruption.  On a larger scale, can we be too far away from some crops being planted, weeded, fertilized and harvested by autonomous equipment?
• Auto-Grocery: Order on-line and either have it delivered (via autonomous vehicle, obviously).  But if not, show up at the grocery store and just pick up your bins of food.  You don't have to walk through the store yourself, it has been picked and sorted for you.  I think this is where Amazon Fresh is heading and I love the concept.  This will, I think to be successful, require some standardization in the handling of sensitive fresh produce.  Imagine purpose-built (and reusable) plastic cages for individual tomatoes or cucumbers.  Inefficiencies in packing will be more than made up for by efficiency (and product quality) gains at the point of sale/delivery to the customer.
• Fabric cutting and assembling: I don't see automated sewing of clothes to be too far down on the horizon.  Fabric physics is being modeled better than ever.  Will anybody bemoan the end of sweatshops?

Where are some places that machines will not likely change much?

• Fixing broken stuff: This feels like something that will be very hard to automate.  We still rely on very very simple technology for much of our life.  Valves and toilets, for instance.  When they break, it's not likely to be a robot assessing what is broken or fixing it.  For all of the computer assist in diagnosing cars, it still takes a person using tools that have advanced little from the 1960's to swap out a bad part.  Some maintenance areas could still benefit substantially from a robot assist.  Imagine Costco investing in automated wheel removal / tire removal / tire installation robot.
• Clothes/shoe shopping: Lots of people like to browse and touch.  Technology will have a hard time changing this too much.  Though note that we spend less of our disposable income on clothing than in the recent past.  More on this in a future post.
• Live Entertainment: I have no interest in seeing a live robot band.  Sort of a mis-statement anyway.
• Fashion / Aesthetics /  Interface design: A machine can't design something that looks beautiful and makes sense to us.  Machines will continue to assist and potentially in more meaningful ways.  But it seems obvious to me that there always need to be a guiding hand of a person.
• Storytelling: In all its various forms: books, movies/TV, songs, theater.  The human experience can only be described by humans.