Loss of Power

I am not an expert in the analysis of potential blackout conditions as discussed in this WSJ article.  However, I find the conclusion that by taking out only four transformers (probably actually four substations) in the eastern interconnect one could cause an 18 month blackout to be extraordinarily unrealistic.

Yes, we have some issues.  Some of them:

• It takes a long time to build high voltage transformers
• We don't have a lot of transformer building capacity in the U.S.
• We have relatively lax physical security for our substations
• We have an interdependent physical transmission network.  Losing key interconnection points will cause pain.

With respect to the last point, it should be noted that this is a good thing.  The interdependency exists because its more efficient to trade power across systems.  This is due to non-coincident electrical loads and generation outages.  This saves US electrical consumers (literally) billions of dollars a year.

What I find to be unlikely is that we can't respond to a major event like this.  Our response would be a pain, but I think that we could avoid life-altering outcomes.  We have several different ways in which we can respond (in order of escalating severity):

• Run more expensive, but more proximate electrical generation facilities.  We already have market mechanisms to deal with this and a relatively robust reserve margin to cover unexpected system conditions.
• Ask for voluntary reduction in power usage by both residential customers as well by commercial and industrial.  In the summer, this can take the form of raising the temperature in our houses another 5º.  Or not turning on the big screen TV until 7 or 8pm (after the evening peak load usage).
• Pay industrial and commercial customers to reduce their load (off of historical baselines).  There are structures (e.g., demand response) that have been effective at modifying behavior.
• Dramatically increase power rates above a certain monthly kWh usage.  This is already done to a lesser extent in the retail rate structures in many states.
• Mandate a reduction in usage.  For example, outlaw air conditioning usage, perhaps on alternate days of the week.  Impose large fines on people using air conditioning when they should not be.
• Characterize critical and non-critical buildings and usage for power.  Cut power to non-critical ones.

I could be wrong.  It wouldn't be pretty, but this would hardly bring us to our knees.