Thursday, March 6, 2014

When Will Wearables Explode?

Not thinking in the literal sense, but in something more than the industry hype sense.  I hope that the hype has peaked and we are moving into the period of hard work where people make products attractive and usable for the masses, not just the early adopters.

Here are some ill-informed views on when I think that wearables will really take off:

  • When "energy harvesting" is built-in from the start.  While I am generally not too annoyed that I have to charge my fitbit once per week, I'd rather I didn't have to.  It seems somewhat ironic, as well, that a device that is capturing my motion data, is not using that motion to its benefit.  How cool would it be if I never had to charge my fitbit (as long as I used it)?
  • Data transmission is standardized.  Good example: I have a fitbit and a Garmin ForeRunner 450.  Both require proprietary USB adapters to connect to my computer.  Hopefully, devices will coalesce around using low power BlueTooth or some single suitable technology.  Better than this, it'd be great if the devices didn't use near-field technology at all, but instead connected to Wifi and take the computer out of the equation.
  • More complete monitoring.  Steps are a good first step.  But not nearly enough for a compelling fitness / wellness view.  
    • How about:
      • 3D movement, interpreted, so that you don't have to log what activity you were doing.  Premium systems could include multiple sensors for a better read (wrist, hip & ankle).
      • Heart rate (and better yet actual ECG signal)
      • Blood oxygen levels
      • Respiratory rate
      • Perspiration levels
      • Blood pressure
      • GPS location, even if only through your phone
    • Some of this should be real-time, but where that gets hard, at least make near real time (like Azoi could be used right after getting off the treadmill).
  • Some better understanding of how people want to change themselves (or remain the same).  
    • For instance, is it important to you to:
      • Train for a particular event
      • Just get "better"
      • Remain at your current high fitness level
    • Provide real feedback tailored to such.  I'm afraid that this will remain in the "paid extra" category, but I don't think that it will take off until a subscription is not required.  I'd be much more willing to buy a premium version of the product up front that has this built into the cost rather than a subscription and think that many others share my aversion.  It boggles my mind that this isn't being done already with fitbit.
  • Capture "uncapturable" information and integrate it into your product.  
    • AskMeEvery is a great example of how this could be done:
      • Wearable user works out
      • Wearable system asks user how fatigued they are after the workout (via email, if necessary)
      • Wearable system determines that its pretty much the same workout as they had done three days ago
      • Wearable system alerts user that they are making progress: their reported fatigue is only 8 out of 10 instead of the 10 out of 10 they reported three days ago
    • To be fair, fitbit and others are doing this with food.  But it comes in the "paid extra" category and still isn't easy enough to do reliably.
  • Generally decrease the uncapturable information in the system.  A few thoughts:
    • Build a kitchen scale with wifi that can be used in conjunction with a phone app.  Have people weigh their food.  (Seems like this could already exist and I'm just unawares).  It has to be much more accurate that taking a picture or just estimating.  And easier.  I had 18oz of lasagna.  Done.
    • [Other ideas to be added as they (hopefully) come to me.]

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