Showing posts with label robots. Show all posts
Showing posts with label robots. Show all posts

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Any Room for Us Humans?

My son made me sit down and watch the below video entitled, Humans Need Not Apply.  I'm not sure I agree 100% with his conclusions, but I think generally, he is on target.  I passed this link along to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution and he included in his recent assorted links.

Enjoy the video first, and if you care to, check out my thoughts below.



For me, the question is more of not if, but when.  When does this really matter?  Here are my initial questions/thoughts (with some structure):

  • What are the reasons that this won't happen?
    • Luddites?
    • How will regulatory structures evolve to support or thwart the use of robots in various rolls?
    • "Hand made"
    • What will frighten people when they see it in action?
  • How significant would it be if just one sector (transportation) were fully automated?
    • Will we start consuming more?
  • Does this lead to more or less energy consumption?
    • Can we afford to spend more of our income on expensive renewable energy as a result?
  • Who gains the most?  Who loses the most?
    • Professions, in particular
    • Wealth distribution implications?
    • What government structures facilitate or thwart this outcome?
  • Do third world countries fall that much further behind?
    • Does this further increase the immigration pressures?
  • Can software really be written by 'bots?
    • We can barely get OOP done right and its been 30 years . . .
  • How does this disrupt the economies of scale in manufacturing?
    • Shouldn't it be just as cheap to locate flexible assembly robots closer to customers and minimize your supply chain length?
    • What are non-scale driven activities (or modestly scale driven)?
  • How can I be a meaningful part of making this happen?
  • How will we spend our money differently in such a robot-dominated world?
    • Will "live" be at an even higher premium?
  • Is creativity really just an illusion?
    • If so, why isn't more pseudo-creative work being generated by computers / expert systems already?
      • Music can be done, but can lyrics, as well?
      • The human voice?
  • In what ways will we seek out collective experiences in the future that are different from now?
  • Will this lead to more or fewer people on the planet?
  • Is this future an anathema to freedom?
  • What are the next set of questions that we should be asking as a species?
    • Is exploration (of earth, then space) a sufficient focusing force?
    • Does health science provide enough upside to continue to develop improvements in the treatment of disease and elongation of life?

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Robots are taking over?

[Under Construction - but I've run out of steam - will get back to it when I get more - steam]

Recently, Wired published a story about robots taking over the workforce. I really don't see that happening quickly, though I would like to capture my thoughts about things that I would like to automate for me.

One thought at the start is that I think these tasks that I'm seeking to be done are all part of normal life.  Everybody (more or less) has to tackle them.  I also consider all of them, "work".  As in, they are things that we have to do, but don't seem particularly enjoyable.

The tasks are also repetitive and thus warrant some amount of specialization and I talk about each of them in that context.  If these specialized 'bots will exist in the next 5 or 10 years, I don't see the generalized 'bots coming for another decade.  But I'm probably optimistic on both fronts by about a decade.  This goes back to the adage about forecasting: we tend to over-forecast short-term change and under-forecast long term change.

Here are my separate categories.  I'm definitely open to additions from anybody out there that stumbles on this post.

  1. Driverless Car: Yes, I would like to sit in the backseat.  And have it automatically valet my vehicle (that includes paying the garage fees, if any).  I don't know what I'm going to do that is productive when I'm commuting in the back seat, but it would still be awesome.  Long trips would be even better.  This sure wasn't me when I was younger and saw driving as a path to freedom.  Now, it's just a chore.
  2. Home Organization/Cleaning: a broad category, yes.  Here are the subtopics:
    1. Pantry: Combination of inventory management and organization.  Ideal situation would be that it would stock, reorganize and order more whenever a stock-out occurs.  For this to happen, the device would have to be able to continuously scan present items (I wouldn't restrict access to the pantry to the robot) and know how to order more.  This wouldn't be literally limited to a pantry, but over-counter cabinets, as well.  Lots of flexibility necessary for this one.  Would need the flexibility to recognize items in the pantry that it didn't put in there (even asking the owner what an item is if it doesn't recognize it).  Should also be able to respond to fetch commands.
    2. Refrigerator:  Same as pantry, except with refrigerated items.  Should also clean/disinfect regularly.
    3. Closet/Laundry: Collect, load, clean, unload, dry, collect, fold, stack and arrange.  Super complex and varied set of skills.
    4. Kitchen: Clean counters, floors, tables.  Load dishwasher.  Dispose of food.
    5. Bathroom: Mostly looking for cleaning skills here. Who wants to have to clean their own toilet?  Floor, shower and sink cleaning would be nice additions.
    6. Trash/Recycle-ables: Remove trash from all trash receptacles around the house (but primarily the kitchen), put into a larger trash bin outside and replace the bag.  For bonus points, it should take the garbage cans to the street at the right time(s) of the week.  I think that the receptacles would have to be redesigned to make this an easy activity for a machine.
  3. Cooking: Not in a huge hurry for this one.  I don't mind cooking (what I do of it, mostly grilling) and my wife likes to cook.  Its the cleaning up, mentioned above, that we really don't get any satisfaction out of.
  4. Yard Maintenance:
    1. Lawn: Yep - something like this.  There was an article recently (in the Financial Times, I think, but I couldn't find it when I looked) about lawn robots that suggested a couple of interesting things: (a) Europe is in the lead because lawn services are more expensive due to higher labor costs and (b) when people have reliable systems they are often used to cut the lawn daily instead of weekly.  They machines are battery based, and will cut within a defined geography without any human intervention.
    2. Pruning/Bush Management: Complex.  Trim my bushes.  But it would be awesome.  Tree pruning is a reasonably infrequent and probably very difficult due to the heights.  
    3. Fertilization/Watering: This could be a simple means of depositing some fertilizer on the tail end of the lawn robot's activities.  Simple task.  More interesting would be for the system to know how much water and fertilizer to deposit based on an array of sensors around the yard.  
    4. Weed Control: How cool would it be if you were able to plant what you wanted and then not have to worry about weeding through the entire growing season?  If we can mow lawn, presumably we could get a smaller device that would work around delicate flowers or herbs or vegetable garden.  If it could also patrol the garden for deer and rabbits, that would be pretty kick ass.
    5. Debris Management:  We get a lot of sticks and branches that fall from mature trees onto our yard.  I'd love our lawn to be thoroughly scoured of this after every big storm or at least every couple of weeks.  Some of this happens now just from a large lawn mower blade chopping up small branches.  Pretty sure that the lawn 'bots aren't  to be quite this big (at present).  When they are, this is probably just an infrequent activity that I still have to do in person.
  5. Pool Maintenance: So, we already have some form of "pool robot" that we use to clean the bottom of the pool.  Our Polaris has no intelligence but is still useful.  I'd like something that knows when its done and turns itself off (potentially climbs out of the pool and then turns off the auxiliary pump).  Some better designed pool equipment would be important, too.  Here are a couple of thoughts: (a) Pool filters should automatically back flush when they need to be (I can't believe that this isn't the case already) and (b) skimmer baskets should be designed to automatically empty.  I don't see an easy way for this to work in their current configuration, but that doesn't mean that it shouldn't be changed.