Day 3: Perfect Steak Gadget

I recently cooked a store-bought filet on my grill.  I had to pay close attention to the amount of time spent for various stages of the cooking process.  While it turned out quite well, why not have a device that does all of that for me?

One Step Beyond

The PerfectSteak® (not really) machine would work in the following manner:

1. With the grill cold, you'd clip the device on two grill bars.  To the left is your hot side and to the right is your cold side.
2. Turn your PerfectSteak on.
3. Heat up your grill to the desired temperature.  PerfectSteak will let you know when you've achieved that by sending you a message to the PerfectSteak app.  All interaction other than turning it on and off will be through the app.
4. Press "Load Steak" on your app.  The device raises the two long, fork-like rods for you to attach the steak.  The PerfectSteak knows when its loaded and begins the timer.
5. After two minutes the PerfectSteak raises the steak up, rotates it axially and then places it back on the grill surface.
6. After two more minutes the PerfectSteak flips the steak over to the cold side and alerts the user to shut down the hot side.
7. After two more minutes, the PerfectSteak flips the steak over axially on the cold side.
8. After two more minutes, the PerfectSteak beeps excitedly that it is done cooking the perfect steak!

See the below diagram that provides a clownishly simple view of what would be occurring:

I think that there are some obvious reasons why this will be hard:

• Electroics/motors in a 500ºF environment.  I'm sure that we have electronics and motors that could be used in this environment, but they are likely well out of the bounds of consumer applications.
• Alternatively, this could be solved by using two control rods that would go into the grill (from the front) and some clever mechanical engineering to enable all of the above-described acrobatics.  This certainly complicates the mounting of the device, but given that its firmly attached to the grill surface, it could hang from the front of the grill without too much problems.

Two Steps Beyond

A few more features that would be quite useful:

• Provide a measured plastic sheet to put your steak on prior to putting on the grill.  Have the user take a picture.
• Combine the above with the weight of the meat, and a much more sophisticated model of the piece of meat can be created.  
• Use that model, combined with the actual temperature inside the grill, rather than set cooking times to create the truly perfect steak.
• Use thermo-couples inside of the fork-like rod ends to measure internal temperature of the meat to further refine the model.
• Pressing a steak onto two fork-like rods when the rods are at high temperature would be no fun task.  The design can be modular, such that the fork is attached outside of the grill and then snapped into place when cooking begins.
• Though much, much more difficult, you could enable the device to control the flow of propane to the grill.  Probably one step too far.

[Update 2015-01-06]

I guess the other option is to put the smarts into the grill itself, like the Lynx SmartGrill.

Day 2: Electronic Food Peeler

This appeals only to the gadget lover in me and, alas, is not likely to be very practical.  It was, however, born out of a not too satisfying experience with the "traditional" tool for the job.  And no, I don't mean a hand-held peeler, but a hand-cranked peeler/corer/slicer.  My son and I used ours for the first time in pursuit of some Thanksgiving mashed potatoes.  I dutifully weighed out 3 pounds of potatoes as called for in the recipe.  I then used the device as pictured below.  Given the geometry of the potatoes, I first cut them in half.

It worked, but took a lot of peel off.  And I had to finish off the ends in each case.  When I was done, I looked at the amount of peel that I had lopped off and decided that I should reweigh.  It turned out that there was only 2 pounds left!  A full third of my potatoes had been lost to the peeling process.  There has to be a better way. There is, and it would be our second day's gadget.

One Step Beyond

My conception would be to have a single axis peeler set up in much the same way that the above is. The goal would be a peeler that would work both well with apples and potatoes (referred to as pommes for the rest of this discussion).  As a result, my device would connect to the pommes on both ends of the axis.  If it connects to the end with the corer/slicer module, the user would have to feed the spikes through the hole, but I think the added stability would be greatly worth it.  The process would be the following:

1. Decide up front if coring and slicing will be part of the activity.  If so, mount the plate to do these things.
2. Mount the pomme by connecting both ends.  
3. Close the box around the pomme for safety.
4. Select apple or potato.  
5. Press "Peel Now!"
6. The device starts out by spinning the pommes and scanning them.  The scanner would move axially down the pomme as it collected sufficiently detailed topological information to understand the bumps.
7. As the scanner is moving down the pomme, the knife follows in its wake.  The knife moves in an out according to the topological map of the pomme to ensure that it's putting just enough pressure (still spring mounted) to take off the skin, without putting undo pressure resulting in too much pomme lost.
8. When the device is done, it beeps or says, "You're pomme is ready!" (depending on which one you chose).
9. Open box and remove the pomme.

Two Steps Beyond

Here are some additional improvements that could be made:

• Multiple peeling attachments for different fruit.  Potatoes and apples likely would require a different peel.  Cucumbers, too.
• Along with multiple peeling attachements, you could enable axial, instead of just circumferential, peeling.  Cucumbers are typically peeled exclusively like this.  Would likely require a substantial upgrade to the motor output and control of the peeler.
• Enable a spinning peeler for rinding of oranges.  Perhaps skinning of tomatoes.  Not sure what else.

Day 1: A Mini UPS

So I realize that some of you may think that I'm cheating on this one, but this is an idea that I had on my own.  First let me describe the problem that led to me thinking about the solution.

I use Vonage, which requires the use of an ethernet to telephone line interface.  I have an old Motorola Voice Terminal box (VT1005V) that I've had since I started with Vonage (around 2002).  It all works well in normal circumstances, but when I lose power in my house, it causes problems.  I'm sure that this isn't supposed to happen, but the VT1005V interferes with one of the FiOS TV box's reacquiring it's IP address via the FiOS router.  As a result, every time the power trips, even for a brief moment, I have to reset the router with the VT1005V unplugged, and let everything get set and then plug the VT1005V back in.

It's a hassle that could be solved by ensuring that the VT1005V didn't turn off.  The rest of my network gear (the FiOS router and the ethernet switch that the VT1005V is plugged into) are already on a UPS.  Unfortunately, the VT1005V is located in my garage all by itself so I can connect it to my house's telephone wiring.  I could just buy a normal small-ish UPS for the garage, but the least expensive one that I can find (having searched Google Shopping, MicroCenter and Amazon) is ~$40.  It also feels reasonably wrong that I'm plugging in a DC device into an AC output of a DC device (the UPS).

You may ask the reasonable question, "Why don't you just set up your VT1005V with a static IP address so that it doesn't interfere with the assignment of the other TV box?"  The answer is a bad one: the VT1005V doesn't respond to web requests, like it manual suggests that it would.  It doesn't even respond to ping requests.  So there is no setting this up with a custom configuration.

That leaves me with the option of making sure that the VT1005V never turns off.  $40 and I'm done.  But this device has very minimal power requirements and is DC, so why can't I buy a device better suited to that need.  I can't find any devices that meet my needs - at least that are readily available in retail.  This is where the internet comes in.

So, I knew what I wanted and kept looking.  Eventually, I did find a device that appears to get it right.  This would be perfect and if the Alibaba price of $16/unit was the retail price, I would be sold.  However, I'm assuming that the actual retail price would have to be roughly a 2x multiple of this.  At $30/unit, it feels less compelling, but still of interest.

There are a range of options, as it turns out.  The simplest would get the job done.  It's basically a battery, but a battery fit for it's intended purpose.  A more complex option (shown above), could get the job done in a cabinet where you have a number of DC-driven devices next to each other.  Even USB powered devices (which I think that we'll see more of).

So, it appears that somebody figured out there is a need.  But I can't get access to the gadget that is the solution.  Unless I want to become an importer.  Which I don't.  Unless I have six other really good ideas.

One Step Beyond

The only reason that I have interest in this product is that product designers have missed the boat.  What boat am I talking about?  It turns out that 75% of all electricity outages (at least reported to the APPA for 2013) last about 72 minutes or less.  See the below chart and look under the SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index) column.

The second chart just suggests that these statistics don't vary too much over time.  So if manufacturers put batteries into their products that could power the product for 75 minutes, customers could avoid 75% of problems with running their devices in the first place without relying on a UPS.  For high power usage devices, this probably doesn't make sense.  My (old) 65" TV can draw almost up to 1 kW.  I have no expectation that Sharp would build in a battery.  That said, when its a clock, Voice Terminal, router, switch, Roku, or the like, I think that this is quite reasonable.  What would this look like for product designers to build this into their products?

The most obvious problems with building batteries into devices are the following:

• Additional cost
• Increased weight
• Battery could fail before unit is done
• Increased energy usage

That said, each of them could potentially be offset:

• Install a standardized slot with a name-brand battery (Energizer).  Have Energizer subsidize the slot on the expectation of replacements down the road.
• Advertise the benefits to consumers.  We all know that our power goes out a bit and especially no days with most of our computers being handhelds or laptops (that continue to have power during an outage), losing access to the internet is disruptive and inconvenient.  I'd pay extra.
• Addressed in the first bullet point.
• For energy usage, the manufacturers could compare their units usage to that of a combined UPS and their non-backed up device.  Their devices would probably compare favorably.

Seven Gadgets for Seven Days

My goal here will be to come up with 7 truly novel and useful items that would enhance our lives / technology experience.  I'm not sure that I can do this - I only have one in my mind right now, but it'll make me think hard about it.  And I will try not to cheat by mentioning gadget ideas that I have previously posted.  Which is partially the point.

Also, I'm totally open to hearing your ideas.   Please share and make my life easier!

Gadget Freak?

I was recently accused of being a gadget freak when talking about the new Amazon Echo.  I was talking to a friend about the new Amazon Echo and that is when he made the comment.  The accusation actually somewhat surprised me.  Perhaps it shouldn't have, I do write this blog.  But it did.

Perhaps I am a gadget freak.  But really I'm not after gadgets for the pure joy of gadgets, but rather the things that gadgets can enable.  I've recently replaced my flakey Pioneer VSX-1122 receiver with a Yamaha RX-A1040.  The thoughts below reflect my recent setup and comparison of the two units.

Here are some (new & recycled) high-ish level thoughts on how our lives could be better with gadgets:

• Reduced Friction: Make it easier for me to do things or access information.
• Make it easy for me to do the things that I want to do.  Echo is cool because you just don't have to do anything beyond speaking.  Until we can do a direct brain interface, this is going to be the easiest and most convenient way for me to express myself to a computer.
• Allow me to multitask.  Asking questions while I'm cooking (I'd probably put the Echo in my kitchen).  Setting timers while I'm throwing spaghetti into boiling water.  All of this would make my life a little bit better.
• I also that computer interface elements matter quite a bit here, too.  I am a huge fan of Atlassian's Confluence wiki product.  When I'm on a page and want to edit it, all I do is hit 'e' on my keyboard and boom - I'm editing.  Blogger has a long ways to go before its as good.  In fact, Blogger is so far behind that I'm worried that Google will give up on it at some point in the not too distant future.
• Lower Setup Hurdles: Make it easy for me to extend the equipment and environment in my home.
• Electronics companies do somethings poorly, but others are done quite well.  I don't have to set up HDMI.  I plug it in and it works.
• The device should stay aware of what is connected to it.  If it's configured in such a way as that output wouldn't or shouldn't be working, tell the user.  Can it be that hard?  Specifically, I'm thinking about my new Yamaha receiver that has a "Zone 2 - Zone Out" set of RCA jacks, but no description of when those are active.  See below in "Better Documentation" for more complaints here.
• I think that there should be a setup video, a walk through of all of the functionality and an ability to skip ahead to key sections.  Post this on YouTube or a specialized site that focuses on letting people to skip to specific portions of the video.
• Improved Error Handling:  When something doesn't work, help me fix it.
• When something doesn't work, don't tell me "Memory Error UE22".  Seriously (Pioneer), that is ridiculous.  Unhelpful, especially when Googling it comes up with nothing.
• My new Yamaha receiver cut out a couple of times when I was in the process of connecting speaker wires.  I would turn it off and then test a new group of speakers.  Eventually, it said to "Check Speaker Wires".  OK, that makes some sense.  But why stop there?  Why not tell me exactly which speaker is giving you the problem?  Shouldn't there be a quick routine where each speaker is tested individually and then a better suited message is displayed (i.e., Check Center Speak wire)?  I did check all of my wires, made some changes, but then got the message a couple of more times.  Then, the messages stopped and the stereo is no longer complaining.  I guess it's all fine?
• I'm the least optimistic about seeing improvements in this area, given that I think that companies (incorrectly) discount the value to the consumer of this part of the process.  I think that many people are willing to do some trouble-shooting before they get tech support on the line or before they give up and return their items to the store from which they purchased it.  I think that companies are incorrectly determining that it's just not worth it.
• More Integration and Imagination: let's think of all of the potential use-cases, not just the easy ones.
• If I'm playing music on my Roku using Amazon streaming on my Prime account, the Echo should be able to ask if I want it to replicate that sound stream.  Given that it can listen to it's environment, it should also be able to synch up on the timing.  This feature may exist, but if it does, I'm unaware from their documentation so far.
• Better Documentation: Document your product exhaustively, but in a way your customers are likely to understand.
• Provide good reference material.  Tell me exactly how it works.  I mean exactly.  When do various outputs function and when do they not.   What are the dependencies between one action versus another?  Yes, the documentation probably gets a bit more complicated, but mine was delivered by CD-ROM (or actually me downloading from their website), so it shouldn't really be much of an additional cost, no?
• Back to the "Zone 2 - Zone Out" set of RCA jacks.  Apparently they are not active all of the time? Are they at line level or at speaker level?  I don't know.  Again, the documentation is not sufficient.  It does say on page 153 that Zone Out is "1 V/1.2kΩ" but I don't know what that really means.  I think its more Line Level than not, but why is it at 1 V instead of 200 mV, like the AV out?  Why?  What is up with this? Wikipedia doesn't really help.  Maybe some of you all out there know?

A Golden Age for the Arts?

I recently wrote about how I believe that we are living in a "Golden Age" for information access.  I think that we are also in a golden age for the arts.  If you are good, maybe not even great, and you have hustle, you can find an audience using tools that our age of low information friction has enabled to come into force.

I just started today learning about an artist, Ana Free.  The specifics of her are not terribly important, but I spent some time trying to figure out how she makes her way in the world.  While I'm sure that it doesn't hurt that she is beautiful, what she sings is square into the realm of my personal preferences.  I've always found singer-songwriters intriguing and dream that some day maybe I'll have completed a song (written, played, recorded and "released").

She does the following:

1. Concerts & Touring: the typical core money-maker for musicians.  Which is why they complain about being on the road all of the time.  That said, she has no upcoming tour dates on her website.  So this can't be too important for her?   Maybe there just isn't anything set up right now.
2. YouTube videos: The grand-daddy of individuals monetizing their presence on the internet.  Generate a large enough following, and you can support yourself via a cut of the ad revenue generated from YouTube views.  But you need a lot of views to make that happen.  My guess is that her video posts are in support of her enhancing her other streams of income.  She has two types of videos:
1. Normal Music Videos (Covers): Ana appears to post roughly two videos a month of covers of popular music.  She is often collaborating with "friends".  The videos are professionally shot (I'm a fan of the aesthetics) often in simple locations.  Friends is only in quotes because I don't know if those folks are really friends or if its a convenient professional relationship and they want the public to think that they are just two friends having a good time when in fact they are professional musicians trying to make a living.
2. Elaborate Parody Videos: Ana sings in some fun parody videos that are quite elaborate (Spice Girls and Taylor Switch for a couple).  She may have creative input, but she appears to be there mostly for her pipes.
3. Original Music Videos: Much of her work is available for enjoyment in video form.  Killing Kind is a great example of an original video.  (My favorite song, so far, of hers.)
4. Web TV Series: Ana has been featured in the pilot episode of Coffee House.  Would be a great series if they could get the idea rolling along.
3. iTunes & Spotify: her music is posted and people who want to own or listen to, can download or stream.  Standard stuff, just note that she is doing it as (largely) an independent.  I say largely, because it does appear that at least in Asia, she has gotten support from Warner Singapore.  Wikipedia lists her as unsigned.  She released her self-produced album To.Get.Her on iTunes.
4. PledgeMusic: Ana had the equivalent of a Kickstarter or Indegogo campaign on this site.  She raised 171% of what she needed for the project with just 301 sponsors.  There isn't enough information on the site to know what the funding goal was, but it was met.  And the album was produced.  She recorded in London and at least did some song-writing elsewhere.  I love this funding model for new albums.  It throws the need for a label out of the window.  Over the Rhine did this recently with their last couple of albums and I know many other bands are doing it, as well.  Lowers risk for the artists (substantial upfront costs to produce an album) and let's fan show their support in a tangible way.  Cheesy to say, but total win-win.
5. Royalties:  She has had some chart-topping songs in other countries.  No doubt, she sees some meaningful income from video TV channels and radio stations playing her music.
6. Patreon: a relatively new site (at least to me) that allows artists to seek out support from "patrons".  I think generally that it works that an artist gets paid by their patrons for each piece of work that they do (or time period over which they do it).  For Ana, the piece of work is a video.  There are categories all of the way from Music to Writing to Comedy to Games to Science.  Much like a Kickstarted project, Ana has Goals at which her work gets more elaborate with the more money she raises per video.  And there are different levels of support.  At the top level, if you support her for $100 per video (roughly $200/month), you get to spend 30 minutes on Google Hangouts or Skype with her.  I guess that means her time is worth $400 per hour?  She currently has 69 patrons at various levels offsetting $469 of her cost to produce a video.  Super cool that any of us can directly support artists with nothing getting in the way.  That said, I like the singer-songwriter combination.  I'd be willing to support the creation of new material, but don't feel super compelled to support the production of covers of other people's music (though they are quite good covers).
7. Stage-It: Want to do a concert without going on tour?  Play local or play some music and stream it to your audience on the internet.  A very interesting (and still quite early stage) idea, but one being pushed by Stage-It and Livestream (and maybe others).  Ana has a concert scheduled on Stage-It for November 30th.  And there is a limit to the audience size.  And Stage-It doesn't archive any of the performances.  So you have scarcity and expiry to bring value to event.  I guess.  I've signed up for an upcoming concert that will cost me $3.50 or annoyingly 35 "notes".  I've signed up mostly out of curiosity.  I've seen a concert given by another woman that was posted to YouTube which looked reasonably well done.  I'm guessing Ana's won't be as elaborate, but it's a worthwhile experimentation.  Perhaps we will move from the local coffeehouse to global coffeehouse.  We will be snapping our virtual fingers in no time.  But they really need an AppleTV/Roku channel to enjoy it properly.
8. Social Media: yep.  She's all over Facebook, Twitter, Instagram & Tumblr.  She's probably too young to have a MySpace page?  (sort of - there is one, but clearly with no investment on her part)
9. Music Website: A very visually slick site devoted to all things Ana Free.  In the current (and annoying) scroll through web design.  A must have, but not a money generator in and of itself.  I'm sure that this is actually a meaningful cost center for her but one that helps support all of the other revenue streams that she's developed.
10. "Lifestyle" Website: Appears to be a poorly maintained site (last real posts were early August all on the same day) and the one post via a YouTube video two days ago.  She must consider this a further brand enhancement tool.  But seems like it should be nothing more than a tab on her music website.
11. Merchandise: Yes, can't forget the merch.  Some mildly interesting designs and some very cool ones.  Very simple brand extension and one that doesn't really require much work on Ana's part.  Pay a talented graphics designer to pull together a few logos and upload to a site that will do all of the fulfillment work.  Further brand advertisement and a fraction of each sale.

From an outsider's perspective, it still feels like the traditional revenue streams will dominate her monthly income and most of what she is adding to her revenue as a musician is at the margin.  It also feels like she's out there working hard to get her brand out there.  And pays for a lot of professional photography and design work to enhance her brand.  Her international booking agency is ITB, which has a roster of 100+ well-known bands (though amusingly, doesn't list Ana Free as one of their clients).  She may also have a staff of a reasonable size dedicated to making it work for her.

It appears that much of her recording is done in her own space (I could be wrong about this, but the gear in the background suggests I'm correct).  This is only possible given the advancement of low-cost / high quality audio processing.  A macbook and $5k of software and hardware and you have a pretty powerful setup for desktop music publishing.

She has a degree in economics and perhaps finds the business side of the industry as challenging and important as the artistic side?  I don't know, but I think that we are in an age where hard work, talent get you into a positions where you can support yourself as a middle class artist.  And that is a good thing for the vibrancy of our culture.

And all of this information was easily accessible from my easy chair.  Truly a golden age.

The Golden Age for Information?

There is, perhaps, a golden age for everything.  And many different people will think that their time (or more likely a past time) was a "Golden Age" for something.  For me, I think that we are currently living in a Golden Age because there is so much human knowledge available to you almost instantaneously.  And folks are still innovating to come up with ways of speeding it up even further.

I recently watched the Amazon Echo promotional video and I was struck with how useful that could be.  (My son made me immediately watch the parody video, which is admittedly a lot more fun).  Talking about it over dinner, both of my teenage son's thought that I'd be supremely lazy to buy one.  Their argument was that I already have a device (my iPhone) that will basically do the same thing.  I tried a few of the same examples from the Amazon ad and was disappointed with the Siri results.  They just rolled their eyes and said why wouldn't you just type it into your computer.

Friction.  Forcing yourself to the computer to ask a question or to take a note doesn't work all of the time.  There will just be things that you don't take a note about.  Or things for which you don't ask the question, even though it would have been nice to have an answer just then.  Perhaps Amazon Echo could read you the next step in the recipe?  The timer function would definitely help.

I have a bunch of z-wave controllable light switches around my house installed to work with a Mi Casa Verde device.  It stopped working and I've been looking into replacing it.  I could just replace it with a Vera 3 or a Vera Lite controller.  That said, I don't like the idea that I paid $200 or so and it works for 3 or 4 years and then just poops out.  (But perhaps that is the state of all electronics these days?)

In my attempt to find a replacement, I've wondered how possible / fun that it might be to create a controller on my own (or at least partially on my own).  I'm a reasonably tech savvy person and can code reasonably well.  I've thought that the Raspberry Pi was a very cool platform to build on.  With a simple Google search, I ran across the Razberry daughter card.  The Razberry includes all of the hardware and low-level software to control a Z-wave network.  And from some review of their site, there appears to be enough information for me to learn how to program my own profile.

Amazing.  I can just decide to do an incredibly complex electronics project because I can find sufficient and freely available information on the Internet.  I have a means to ask questions (forums) and learn from questions others have asked before me.  Worst case, I can buy books (without leaving my house) to go in depth on a particular topic.

Golden Age for information and ease of access to it.  At least that is what it feels like to me now.  Will the next 10 or 20 years get even better?  Have we reached a limit to how free information can get?  Or will I laugh when I look back on the state of information availability of 2014?

Ways in which it could get much better:

• More information available.  Generally, just an expansion of human knowledge.
• Better searching on the internet.
• More open source and open source-like projects.
• Easier interfaces for relative noobs like me to get started on electronics projects.

Ways in which it could get worse:

• Copyright insanity
• Paywalls
• Collapse of civilization

My bet is that it gets better.  Much better.  I can't wait!

The State of the Art in Smart Watches

Apple's smart watch isn't nearly as smart as this guy, the Garmin Forerunner 920XT.  I can't wait, despite the fact that it'll cost ~$500 with the HRM-Run heart rate monitor.

I've owned a Forerunner 405 for about six years and I've enjoyed having access to the data from both running and biking.  The 920XT takes things up a notch and if I bought one, I could see myself never wanting to take it off.  From the 405, it steps things up by adding:

• Activity tracking (good bye fitbit?)
• Running form (when used with HRM-Run monitor)
• Swimming!  Laps and cadence and stroke
• Color display: seems nice but not necessary
• Smart phone integration (will show a text).  Not sure that I care about this.  Often, I'm running with my watch to avoid having to lug my phone around.  But who knows.
• Battery life: claimed 24 hours in normal mode.
• Power-meter compatible (though I don't see myself dropping $1500 on pedals)

Much of this look genuinely useful.  Now, this is only based on what they say it'll do.  Who knows.  But I would love to find out.  Maybe this'll have to be my Christmas present to myself.

A Catalog of the Future

Perhaps the title doesn't quite convey the essence of TBD Catalog, but I think it may.  Their main tag line is:

The catalog of the near future’s normal ordinary everyday

I'm hopeful that this blog does the same in some small way.  Certainly, I'm aspiring to a much smaller scope, but still believe that its worth thinking about the way products should work rather than tweaking current characteristics.

A fun, but very retro way of enjoying the information (must order a hard copy to get to see the full catalog - samples can be seen on their website).

The State of Client Science

From an OpEd in the WSJ:

The idea that "Climate science is settled" runs through today's popular and policy discussions. Unfortunately, that claim is misguided. It has not only distorted our public and policy debates on issues related to energy, greenhouse-gas emissions and the environment. But it also has inhibited the scientific and policy discussions that we need to have about our climate future.

Thus begins a well-written and thought-through piece about where we stand today with respect to the science.  To summarize: the models don't work very well and we don't understand all of the key drivers.

To me, this has been evident for some time.  And all of this would be not news except for one important aspect: many people are trying to derive (expensive) policy prescriptions based on the current state of the science and its "obvious" implications.

I'm not a fan of doing so; I think Mr. Koonin has made a solid contribution.

But for Those Pesky Humans

Stephan Heck and Matt Rogers explore how the world could change given some of the known technology that has been developed and argue for a bright future.  They write about this in their relatively new book, Resource Revolution.  I hope that they are right.  I think that they are right.  I'm an optimist, too.  I'll need to read their book.

In this New York Times review, the author of the review points out very possible unintended consequences of the efficiency improvements that will come if we allow electric / autonomous / carpool systems to develop and improve to the point that they are ubiquitous.  We could just opt for more.  Its a good point, but misses the larger point.

As prices decrease (and technology helps drive down prices), we tend to consume more.  More efficient cars have allowed people living in the exurbs to still commute to the office at a reasonable total cost.  What might be a more compelling line of argument might be whether the goods that we'd be consuming in the future are more or less subject to the same resource intensity as in the past.  As more and more of goods that we consume are low cost to "manufacture" or duplicate (video games, on-line entertainment more generally), our resource intensiveness per unit of GDP should be expected to decline.  To be fair, the author is focusing on physical goods where real resources are consumed.  But if we could cut the number of required cars in this country by half by increasing utilization to 10% from 5%, that would be a substantial reduction in the use of real resources.  If we could cut automotive deaths from 33k to 1k per year, that would result in a substantial reduction in the use of real resources.  Will these be sufficient to offset our increased consumption?  Good question to debate, maybe.

Personally, I think that we are saturated in our interest in spending time in cars (or at least I am).  I can't imagine increasing my time spend in cars just because I don't have to drive.  It will be quite a bit more valuable to me if I don't have to spend the time/energy to drive, yes.  Bigger house, nope.  Mine is too big already.  That may not be true for others, though.  Really, the big problem with housing will come when the cost of renovations is dramatically reduced.  3D mapping and engineering technologies could make this happen (maybe?).  Our existing housing stock is huge compared to new housing built each year.

Too much of a stream of consciousness post, apologies.

Any Room for Us Humans?

My son made me sit down and watch the below video entitled, Humans Need Not Apply.  I'm not sure I agree 100% with his conclusions, but I think generally, he is on target.  I passed this link along to Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution and he included in his recent assorted links.

Enjoy the video first, and if you care to, check out my thoughts below.

For me, the question is more of not if, but when.  When does this really matter?  Here are my initial questions/thoughts (with some structure):

• What are the reasons that this won't happen?
• Luddites?
• How will regulatory structures evolve to support or thwart the use of robots in various rolls?
• "Hand made"
• What will frighten people when they see it in action?
• How significant would it be if just one sector (transportation) were fully automated?
• Will we start consuming more?
• Does this lead to more or less energy consumption?
• Can we afford to spend more of our income on expensive renewable energy as a result?
• Who gains the most?  Who loses the most?
• Professions, in particular
• Wealth distribution implications?
• What government structures facilitate or thwart this outcome?
• Do third world countries fall that much further behind?
• Does this further increase the immigration pressures?
• Can software really be written by 'bots?
• We can barely get OOP done right and its been 30 years . . .
• How does this disrupt the economies of scale in manufacturing?
• Shouldn't it be just as cheap to locate flexible assembly robots closer to customers and minimize your supply chain length?
• What are non-scale driven activities (or modestly scale driven)?
• How can I be a meaningful part of making this happen?
• How will we spend our money differently in such a robot-dominated world?
• Will "live" be at an even higher premium?
• Is creativity really just an illusion?
• If so, why isn't more pseudo-creative work being generated by computers / expert systems already?
• Music can be done, but can lyrics, as well?
• The human voice?
• In what ways will we seek out collective experiences in the future that are different from now?
• Will this lead to more or fewer people on the planet?
• Is this future an anathema to freedom?
• What are the next set of questions that we should be asking as a species?
• Is exploration (of earth, then space) a sufficient focusing force?
• Does health science provide enough upside to continue to develop improvements in the treatment of disease and elongation of life?

Dash!

I can still remember carpooling in the mid-90's and hearing ads for the world's largest bookstore on the radio.  Amazon has come a long way since then, and my life is better for it.  I am a big fan of Prime and "Subscribe and Save," but I'm looking forward to more.

If you are not aware, Amazon has introduced online grocery services, Prime Fresh.  Sadly, it's available "only in the Southern California and Northern California, CA Metro areas".  Those of us on the east coast are out of luck, at least for now.

Now, they go one step further and introduce the Dash.  This would have a special place in my kitchen if Amazon can ever make northern Virginia work for their grocery services.  I'm looking forward to additional retail innovations that Amazon brings forth (and am also lamenting the fact that competitors to Amazon are not spurring on the innovation).

3D Gets Real?

Amazon has opened a store front for 3D objects.  I'm sure that this is just an experiment on Amazon's part, but it appears to be a legitimate attempt to understand (and profit from) interest in items created on-demand from 3D printers.  This could be a game changer for retail for certain types of objects.

You can see from the above picture, they are focusing on relatively non-important items.  That said, this could be a good start for a more wide-ranging retail catalogue.  One could imagine a point in the future at which you could choose between waiting 2 weeks for a part to be made using traditional means or paying somewhat more for a 3D printed version of the part.  IMHO, this gets way more interesting when you are able to move to mixed materials (not just plastic, but plastic, metal and potentially wood).  You are not going to 3D print wood, so perhaps there is some CNC milling that could go along with this and then some simple assembly (even done by robots).

As my middle child always says, "The future is going to be awesome!"

The Ultimate Gadget: Your Brain

On my way back from my bike ride this afternoon, I started listening to this Radio Lab show on NPR.  It was intriguing enough that I looked it up online when I got home and finished the episode.  It is a fascinating discussion of language and what it means to think.

Basically, experiments have shown that people's ability to think about complex topics (in some cases no more complex than the biscuit is in the corner to the left of the blue wall) is tied to language.  Language is thought to be a power connecting force in our brains.  Simple concepts like color can be linked to spatial concepts like "A is to the left of B".  Those connections don't exist from birth and only seem to develop in people who have language and actually, even people who only have reasonably complex language.  This concept fascinates me.

When I conveyed the basic concepts of the show to my son, his first question was the same one I had: what is the best language?  This question was not posed in the show (granted they only had one hour), but I think is very interesting.  It may be the case that all languages that are spoken by a reasonably large number of people are sufficiently developed to allow for complex thought, but can we test on the margin which is better?  And if so, doesn't humanity have a reason to want to all speak that language?

I think that there is an equally intriguing set of follow up questions:

• How can we make our language more complex to make our brains capable of thinking about even more complex concepts and topics?
• Is there a natural limit?  
• Can language be guided and crafted to make this happen?  How?
• Have there already been efforts in the past to make this happen?  Have they been successful?
• Are there ways of thinking or thought exercises that one can do to better connect various parts of their brains (and presumably have higher "horsepower" than before?

The Right Product: UPS

I have reasonably poor reliability at my house, in terms of how frequently the power cycles.  For my important electronics, I have a set (3) of full-sized CyberPower units that work well for my boys' computers upstairs, my computer downstairs and the LAN/AV equipment.  I have a Motorola Vonage box that sits in the garage so that it can be tied into the house's phone lines.  The problem comes when the power trips and the cable boxes go off-line.  What happens is that the Motorola box connects to the LAN first and disrupts (somehow, don't ask me) the ability for the FiOS cable boxes to get their proper IP addresses.  So the cable boxes just cycle until I unplug the Motorola box, reset the router, wait until all the cable boxes connect, then plug back in the Motorola box.  Annoying that this is an issue in the first place, but easily solved if the Vonage box never went offline to begin with (router stays online with my existing UPS setup).

Why is this the cheapest UPS that I can find - $39.95 on Amazon?

What I want is an inexpensive (~$20, half the above price) single outlet UPS that can support a small draw for a couple of hours or even less time.  Why doesn't this already exist?  I can't be the only one wanting something like this.

Perhaps this should be a Kickstarter campaign?

The Right Product: Motorcycle Bluetooth

I have recently been in the market for a bluetooth motorcycle intercom.  The first one I bought was a UClear HBC 100.  It was terrible.  We (my son and I) never got it to work for more than the left ear.  This was after he went to a CycleGear store and they went through about 4 pairs of ear buds (he doesn't have space to mount the helmet speakers).  The build quality of the gear seemed OK, but nothing special.  The instructions were confusing and it was difficult to get it to do what seemed like it should be easy.  Ultimately, we returned it and got our money back.

After waiting a while, and just using earbuds with my iPhone, I decided that I would spring for the Sena SMH10.  What a difference!

SMH10 - Just the Right Product

Everything about it was different.  The build quality seemed much better, which is tough to explain.  It wasn't heavier, but felt more substantial.  And the user experience was so much better.  I followed the instructions and was up and running within minutes.  It works fantastically and is exactly what I was looking for.

It is amazing how different the user experience is with a product that does exactly what you expect (and purports to do).

Solar Already Won?

I forget from where, but I read this article on the Guardian yesterday.  I kept thinking about it, so decided that it would probably be worth posting about.  The article is patently absurd.  Solar has not won yet.  Not at all.  Nor have regulators and customers come fully to grips with the impacts that significant solar deployment on residences and businesses are.

The biggest unaddressed area is that of consistent power delivery.  It's what is known as "reliability" in the industry.  Your house has whatever power it needs (barring storms or some other extraordinary event), whenever you want it.  Solar doesn't work that way.  Despite the positive economics the author cites for per kWh costs, the roof-top solar customers are taking advantage of the fact that whenever the sun isn't shining (or bright enough) to cover the electricity needs, they just draw from the grid.  Reliability is not cheap, but is bundled with your power.

In my opinion, the biggest problem is the way we pay for power (at least in most of the US, I can't speak knowledgeably about Australia).  We should be paying high fixed costs to be customers of the electricity network.  The cost of the wires (distribution and transmission) and transformers and substations is substantial and doesn't vary in the short-run.  Then, we should pay a relatively low variable costs that matches what the cost to produce and deliver the power is (here, delivery would only factor in line losses).  Why don't we pay for electricity this way?

I think that the major reason we don't do it this way is that the current approach tends to incent lower consumption on the part of customers.  That is to say that if people knew they had to pay $100 per month to be connected to the network and then only 4¢/kWh, then they would be less sensitive to leaving the lights on or lowering the AC temperature.  So given that most of us pay a very small fixed component ($10?) and something on the order of 10¢+/kWh, we use less.  Conservation rules! (I guess)

Maybe not all Wearables Make Sense

Or perhaps this post should be titled, Wearables for the Masochistic.  I don't see myself ever wanting to wear one of the new wristbands that will give you a mild electrical shock you when you don't do enough exercise, as this MailOnline article describes.  It is called Pavlok and it looks much like a FitBit Flex.

Certainly, there is going to be a raft of creativity applied to wearables over the next months and years.  Let's hope that results in useful, meaningful advances rather than more like this.

Wearables are Here to Stay (at Work)

So I rarely look at anything on Google+.  But as I was finishing up making a bunch of blog postings this morning, I happened to look at what is there.  I noted that Google is really pushing their Glass product through a gazillion posts.  One of their posts stuck out to me and I had to watch the YouTube video associated with it.

I've argued with my son about whether Google Glass will survive.  Andrew is quite convinced that it will not.  I think that it will and it will come through to general society after people are used to using them and seeing them in a work environment.  The video that I watched only served to harden my opinion on the matter.

This is the video:



The company, Wearable Intelligence, is planning on giving things a go in healthcare and the oil & gas production industry. Both, I believe are ripe for material productivity enhancements and I can see after some well publicized cost cutting, many other companies will be very interested in their use.

And this is how it will begin.  People will get used to wearing these things at work or seeing them on other people who they are working with (or shopping at their store, etc.).  It will be hard to escape them at some point.  Then, I think it will become more commonplace to see normal people wearing them and doing so for good reasons (usefulness in their daily lives).

But then again, perhaps we will always think of these items as the bluetooth earpiece that clowns will leave in their ear despite not being on a phone call, but still brandishing the large blue light.  I still think that Glass or something like it, will be with us for a long time (and not just in specialty applications).